The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea, which began in 2014, remains a major point of contention. A US general suggests that Ukraine may launch a major campaign to retake Crimea this year and calls for full American support. The Kerch Bridge, Russia’s only physical connection to Crimea, is a vital strategic asset, serving as a supply route for Russian forces. Ukraine has successfully neutralised Russian advantages in the region, using drones and missiles to target key military assets. The vulnerability of the Kerch Bridge was demonstrated by Ukraine’s previous actions, including blowing up a truck bomb and disabling ferries.
The upcoming US presidential election in November could impact the timing and outcome of any potential Ukrainian operation. Republican candidate Donald Trump has expressed opposition to sending more military aid to Ukraine. Last month, Ukraine successfully counterinvaded Russia in the Kursk region, seizing territory. The operation to take down the Kerch Bridge could significantly strengthen Ukraine’s position in negotiations.
While some believe a Ukrainian operation against the Kerch Bridge is imminent, others suggest that the timing will depend on various factors, including popular support in Crimea for Ukrainian control. The international community has rejected Russia’s annexation of Crimea following a controversial referendum. Despite the challenges, Ukrainian resistance movements continue to operate in Crimea, with support from the local population. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European Commission President von der Leyen affirm that Crimea belongs to Ukraine. The situation remains complex, with uncertainties about the future of the region.
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