Syrian opposition militias saw an opportunity to take down President Bashar al-Assad when they communicated their plans for a major offensive to Turkey about six months ago. The lightning advance by the rebel alliance led to the seizure of Aleppo and the end of five decades of Assad family rule in Damascus. The successful operation was due to Assad’s demoralized army, weakened allies, and distracted supporters. The rebels, led by HTS, had the tacit approval of Turkey, which had troops in northwest Syria and supported some rebel groups while opposing major offensives due to concerns about instability. Turkey’s attempts to engage Assad in a political solution had failed, prompting the rebels to take matters into their own hands. Despite initial denials, Turkey was aware of rebel planning and provided support. The regime’s weakness, combined with Hezbollah’s withdrawal and Assad’s lack of resources, allowed the rebels to advance quickly. Assad’s fall is seen as a major blow to Iranian influence in the region, while Turkey emerges as a powerful player with its troops on the ground and support for rebel forces. The rebels also aim to challenge Syrian Kurdish groups backed by the US. Overall, the swift collapse of Assad’s regime caught many by surprise, with Turkey emerging as a key player in the conflict.
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