The gubernatorial elections have been relatively uneventful this cycle, with only one competitive race expected. In North Carolina, Democrat Josh Stein has pulled ahead of Republican Mark Robinson in the polls, leading by 11%. Robinson’s campaign has been plagued by scandals, leading state Republicans and the Trump campaign to urge him to drop out – although he has stated he will remain in the race. The race has now been moved to Safe Democratic, with little hope of Robinson winning.
The ramifications of Robinson’s likely loss in North Carolina are significant for Republicans in the state, potentially impacting down-ballot races and the possibility of winning a supermajority in the state House. With North Carolina now off the board, the only competitive state left is New Hampshire, where former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) is facing former Westchester mayor Joyce Craig (D).
Of the remaining races, only Washington and Utah may be mildly interesting. In Washington, Republican Dave Reichart is performing slightly better than average for a Republican but is not expected to win. In Utah, incumbent Republican Spencer Cox faces a write-in campaign from Phil Lyman, who came close to unseating him in the primary, along with two minor-party candidates on the ballot.
Overall, the gubernatorial elections this cycle have been underwhelming, with only a few races showing signs of competitiveness. The state of the nation remains uncertain as the few remaining competitive races continue to unfold.
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